Report: The World Must Help China
and India Handle Energy Growth
Nov 14, 2007 - EERE Network News
Energy developments in China and India are transforming
the global energy system as a result of their sheer
size, according to a new report from the International
Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA's "World Energy Outlook
2007" warns that global energy consumption could increase
"well over 50%" by 2030. Energy use in China and India
could double by 2030, providing nearly half the world's
growth in energy consumption. If that happened, global
carbon dioxide emissions from energy use would increase
by 57%. The world's oil production would also be increasingly
concentrated in the Middle East, and the IEA notes
that "it is very uncertain" whether supplies would
keep up with demand. "A supply-side crunch in the
period to 2015, involving an abrupt escalation in
oil prices, cannot be ruled out," notes the IEA. And
of course, things will be even worse if the world
experiences faster growth than currently anticipated.
Fortunately, the IEA also sees the possibility for
a brighter energy future. Measures to improve energy
efficiency could cause global carbon dioxide emissions
to level off in the 2020s. The savings would be greatest
in China and India, suggesting that international
efforts to help those countries achieve greater energy
efficiencies could be fruitful for both world energy
security and for addressing global climate change.
But even in this energy efficient scenario, carbon
dioxide emissions would still end up about 25% above
current levels by 2030.
If the world decides to stabilize atmospheric concentrations
of carbon dioxide at around 450 parts per million
(a goal often cited by climate scientists), global
emissions would have to peak in 2012 and fall sharply
below 2005 levels by 2030, according to the IEA. That
could be achieved through a combination of aggressive
energy efficiency measures, greater use of renewable
and nuclear energy sources, and widespread deployment
of carbon capture and storage technologies, says the
report. But to make this a reality would require "exceptionally
quick and vigorous policy action by all countries,
and unprecedented technological advances," according
to the IEA. The report stresses that the next 10 years
will be crucial for shifting the world's energy supply
toward a cleaner, more efficient, and more secure
path.
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