EIA: World Energy Use Up 49% By 2035, Led By Emerging Nations

Global energy consumption will rise 49% between 2007 and 2035, led by economic growth in developing nations, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.

While use of renewable fuels will grow rapidly in the period, "fossil fuels are still set to meet more than three-fourths of total energy needs in 2035, assuming current policies are unchanged," Richard Newell, EIA administrator said.

Average U.S. benchmark oil prices will rise to $133 a barrel in 2035 from $79 a barrel, hitting $108 in 2020, in a reference case scenario, the EIA said.

In the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer, total energy use will rise by 0.4% annually in the period, while Japan's energy consumption eases 0.1% a year. For all of the major industrialized nations comprising the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, energy consumption will grow at an average of 0.5%

China, the second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., will see energy demand growth of 3.1%, while India's appetite will increase at a 2.2% annual rate. Other non-OECD Asian economies are expected to show 2.5% annual energy demand growth. Brazil's energy use will rise by 2.4% annual, while Middle East nations will collectively post an average 2.2% rise each year through 2035, matching the average non-OECD demand rise. Total world demand is expected to rise 1.4% annually in the forecast period.

Petroleum and other liquid fuels remain the world's largest energy source through 2035, the EIA said, but higher oil prices will erode their share of total energy use to 30% in 2035 from 35% in 2007.

World liquids consumption will rise by 0.9% annual over the forecast period, to 110.6 million barrels a day in 2035, from 86.1 million barrels a day in 2007, led by 2.9% annual increases in China. Demand in China will rise to 16.9 million barrels a day by 2035 from 7.6 million barrels a day in 2007. World-leading U.S. demand will rise by 0.2% in the period, to 22.1 million barrels a day, from 20.6 million barrels a day in 2007. OECD liquids demand is expected rise to decline in the near-term, but returning in 2035 to a level of 49.5 million barrels a day, where it stood in 2005.

The forecast assumes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will make investment to maintain its roughly 40% share of world liquids production through the period.

Transportation fuels will account for 61% of liquid fuel consumption, up from 53% in 2007, the EIA projected.

World output of unconventional resources, such as biofuels, oil-sands, and coal- and gas-to-liquids, will increase nearly four-fold to 12.9 million barrels a day in 2035, up from 3.4 million barrels a day in 2007.

Natural gas consumption is expected to rise 1.3% each year, to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035. In the absence of policies limiting greenhouse gas emissions, coal use is projected to rise to 206 quadrillion British thermal units in 2035 from 132 quadrillion Btus in 2007, or an average annual rate of 1.6%. Chinese use of coal is expected to account for 78% of the expected net increase.

World electricity generation is expected to rise 87% to 35.2 trillion kilowatt hours. Use of renewables in power generation will rise by 3% per year, with coal-fired generation expected to rise by 2.3% annually.

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise 43% to 42.4 billion metric tons in 2035, from 29.7 billion metric tons in 2007. Much of the rise is expected to occur in developing nations, especially in Asia.

The forecast expects annual world population growth of 0.9% in the period, and annual growth in global gross domestic product of 3.2%.

-By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2141; david.bird@dowjones.com