U.S. energy agency predicts 75%
more CO2 emissions by 2030
Jun 25, 2006 International
The International Energy Outlook 2006 foresees a
rise of global energy consumption by 71% between 2003
and 2030, resulting in an increase of world-wide carbon
dioxide emissions by 75% over the same period.
The world economy remains hungry for energy notwithstanding
calls for more energy efficiency and the increasing
scientific consensus on the dangers of global warming.
This can be deducted from a new Energy Outlook published
by the U.S. Department of Energy's statistical administration,
the EIA (Energy Information Administration).
Main projections for the period 2003 to 2030 mentioned
in the report:
- world energy consumption will grow on average
by 2% per year from 2003 to 2030 (from 421 quadrillion
Btu in 2003 to 722 quadrillion Btu in 2030). The
most rapid growth is in non-OECD countries;
- the industrial sector has the highest energy use
growth (2.4% per year), whereas the growth of energy
use in the transport sector slows down as a result
of higher oil prices;
- oil will remain the dominant energy source; world
oil use will grow from 80 million barrels per day
in 2003 (86 million today) to 118 million barrels
in 2030. OPEC will provide the majority of this
increase (+ 14.6 million barrels per day) and there
will be more use of non-OPEC oil and unconventional
resources biofuels, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids);
- natural gas consumption will increase on average
by 2.4% per year;
- world coal consumption will increase by 3% per
year on average (esp. in China);
- world nuclear capacity will rise from 361 gigawatts
in 2003 to 438 gigawatts in 2030, but with significant
declines in Europe;
- renewables will only grow from 8% in 2003 to 9%
in 2030;
- global carbon dioxide emissions will increase
from 25 billion metric tons in 2003 to 43.7 billion
metric tons in 2030.
Energy supply and policies to tackle
global warming are also on the agenda of the 21 June
EU-US Summit in Vienna.
Source:
Euractive
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