California ISO Wind Forecasting Improves by 20 Percent
26, 2010 - Business Wire
The California Independent System Operator
Corporation (California ISO) reports a 20 percent improvement in forecasting wind
generation based on the results of a year-long forecasting competition. The improvement
represents a significant advancement in the ability of the power grid to integrate
fluctuating wind power. The ISO is making its findings public in a study recently
posted to its website. http://www.caiso.com/2726/2726d0e26480.pdf
than 3,000 megawatts of wind generation are connected to the transmission system
right now," said ISO Director of System Operations Debi Le Vine. "Monitoring intermittent
wind production closely keeps the grid in balance and the lights on. With wind
resources expected to double over the next five years or so, accurate forecasting
is imperative to maximize the usage of these new green resources."
the ISO issued a request for bids from wind forecasting services. Three companies
responded to the challenge to see which one could provide the most accurate and
cost effective forecasts over a 12 month period. Each company submitted forecasts
for wind resources in three of the major wind areas in California, covering both
day-ahead and hour-ahead market time frames. The winner would receive a contract
to provide wind forecasts as the ISO integrates more wind power into its markets.
After an exhaustive statistical analysis of the results, the ISO selected
AWS Truewind, LLC as the winner. AWS Truewind had been providing forecasting services
for the ISO, but by employing a new rapid updating numerical weather prediction
model, the company provided the most accurate information.
ISO has unique wind power forecasting requirements," said Ken Pennock, AWS Truewind's
forecasting business manager. "Our flexible and results-driven approach to power
forecasting is what led to the notable accuracy improvement. We look forward to
continuing our work with the California ISO team to help them realize their goal
of reliably integrating more renewables into their system."
a more accurate forecast in time to use the information in our markets," said
Manager of Renewable Integration Grant Rosenblum. "That means the ISO will be
better able to manage the big increase in wind power we're expecting. The more
accurate our forecasts, the better our operators can balance energy supply and
demand. That enhances our ability to utilize the wind resources we have now and
the increases we know are coming."
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The California ISO operates the state's
wholesale transmission grid, providing open and non-discriminatory access supported
by a competitive energy market and comprehensive planning efforts. Partnering
with more than 90 client organizations, the ISO is dedicated to the continual
development and reliable operation of a modern grid that operates at the least
cost to the benefit of consumers. The ISO bulk power market allocates space on
transmission lines, maintains operating reserves and matches supply with demand.
Recognizing the importance of global climate change, the ISO welcomes new, advanced
technologies that will help meet the energy needs of 30 million Californians efficiently
and cleanly. The ISO is a nonprofit public benefit corporation.