In collaboration with the World Energy Council
(WEC), IIASA conducted a five-year study of long-term
global and regional energy perspectives. Using IIASA's
integrated modeling framework, the study explores
a broad range of energy developments and their consequences,
such as the likely financing needs and environmental
impacts. This paper summarizes the main features
and findings of the study focusing on implications
of global perspectives for Euroasian regions.
One of the important results of the study is the
need for further energy integration in Eurasia to
achieve both goals of supplying the energy services
needed for economic development and reducing the
adverse impacts on the environment at all scales.
Clean fossil fuels would continue to be an important
sources of these energy services and would lead
to further decarbonization of energy. This, however,
requires the emergence of large interconnected energy
grids in Eurasia and implies a drastic energy geo-political
shift. Such developments could dramatically improve
the match between demand and supply for hydrocarbons
(oil and gas) and in the long-term promote even
further integration of Europe and Asia. e.g., through
gas and electricity networks. Such ambitious Eurasian
energy grids would bring large economic benefits
to gas (and energy) exporting regions and would
enable healthier economic development throughout
the region by the provision of cleaner and more
flexible energy forms to most of the citizens.
Financing would be a challenging problem but only
probably during the initial phases of the long-term
construction of Eurasian energy grids. After a few
successes private financing is likely to be attracted
because of the high potential economic benefits.
A possible, but very speculative initial financing
scheme is proposed in the paper involving global
carbon dioxide trading permits.
Should the Kyoto emissions reduction agreement
be implemented, Russian federation is likely to
acquire a large "emission bubble" by 2010. Tentative
estimates made at IIASA indicate that the "bubble"
might be as large as 300 MtC annually for the territory
of the former Soviet Union (mostly Russia and Ukraine)
during the first two decades of the next century.
(For a more detailed discussion of specific numbers
for Russia and Ukraine, see paper by Victor, Nakicenovic
and Victor, also presented at the Snowmass Workshop.)
The paper calls for further analysis of new Eurasian
energy grids and possible financing mechanism that
would lead to lower carbon intensities in Asia as
well as lower adverse environmental impacts at all
scales.
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