 Global Model Index
Help: Model Name - acronym descriptionPlatform ** Note: Matrix contains mainly socio-economic models, and doesn't address a wide range of other models created to address specific fields such as climate/GCM (general circulation model), manufacturing, traffic/transportation, plant energy exchange, etc. This is clearly a subjective classification. Many of the newer models add lots of feedback. ** Note: If some information is not included, that indicates that it was not released for publication. These models have generally followed political/economic decisions/policy lines. Chaos theory models are about 10% accurate, while other models are about 7% accurate. ** Note: SIMearth has been used to create artificial societies for short-term and medium-term policies and decisions. ** Note: GENI is looking for:
1. World2IBM PC compatibles.World Dynamics program written in
DYNAMO language. BASIC may also be run so interactive
or batch use may be employed.Jay Forrester's World Dynamics (1971) is a model which analyzes the relationships between population, pollution, capital investment and natural resources. Limits to Growth successor model allows for the study of these variables and their relationships. Contact: Peter Brecke for questions on BASIC conversion to PCs as well as specifics on World2. Peter Brecke School of International Affairs Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA 30318-0610 Email: peter.brecke@inta.gatech.edu Areas included in model:
2. Regional World IIIDOS/ Windows and Mac versions available.Model written in FORTRAN This model includes explicit decision-making criteria based upon the user's ethical persuasions. The regional structure allows simulation of differing sets of social/economic variables within individual nations or political blocs. This user-interactive system has successfully tracked the direction of future socioeconomic trends. Contact: Frederick Kile and Arnold Rabehl, Aid Association for Lutherans, 1579 North Douglas St., Appleton, WI 54911 Areas included in model:
3. Regional World IVIntegrated World Model (Regional World Model IV)DOS/ Windows & Mac versions, written in FORTRAN with 4 interrelated programs that consist of 84 subroutines The new model, Integrated World Model (Regional World IV) integrates the user-decision-maker mechanism into a computer-based socioeconomic model. It includes traditional user-choice functions and adaptive value-driven interactive processes. Contact: Frederick Kile and Arnold Rabehl, Aid Association for Lutherans, 1579 North Douglas St., Appleton, WI 54911. For more inf. contact: Peter Brecke Areas included in model:
4. Towards a Fossil Free Energy FutureTowards a Fossil Free Energy Future (1993)IBM PC compatibles Three computer models were utilized in the Fossil Free Energy Scenario (FFES) Primary computer model = LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning). This paper analysis presents a main scenario and several variants for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the technical methods and assumptions used to develop them. Goal = phase out fuel use over the next century in order to combat global warming. Contact: Michael Lazarus, Tellus Institute, 11 Arlington St., Boston, MA 02116-3411 Areas included in model:
5. Renewable Energy: Sources for Fuels and ElectricityRenewable Energy: Sources for Fuels and ElectricityNo software exists. Paper model only. This model, written by Thomas B. Johansson, et al., states that if the global community were to make the transition to a renewable-intensive energy economy, there would be environmental, social, and other benefits not measured by economic indicators. Areas included in model:
6. IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO2 Model (A84PC)The IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO2 Model: Personal Computer Version A84PC (1986)IBM PC compatible. Model is available in two forms - ready to run and uncompiled FORTRAN. The J.A. Edmonds and J.M. Reilly model enables the user to modify, interactively, a total of 39 different major assumptions from 12 categories (e.g., population, labor productivity, and synthetic fuel costs) through the use of an international data editor. Time frame = 100 years into the future. The model consists of four parts: supply, demand, energy balance and CO2 emissions. An uncertainty analysis is encompassed. Contact: Center for Global Environmental Studies, CO2 Information Analysis Center Environmental Sciences Division Building 1000 MS 6335 PO Box 2008 Oak Ridge, TN 37831 Areas included in model:
7. World Integrated ModelWorld Integrated Model (WIM)DOS/ Windows & Mac versions, coded in FORTRAN and consists of 49 subroutines. WIM began in 1972 as a joint project between Mihajlo Mesarovic and Eduard Pestel. WIM is a model which utilizes 21,000 numbers to describe the state of the global system at any given point in time. The world is divided into 12 regions and represents integrated global variables such as population, energy, natural resources, trade, etc. GLOBESIGHT has superseded WIM. WIM was originally funded by the Volkswagen Foundation. Contact: Peter Brecke School of International Affairs Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA 30318-0610 Email: peter.brecke@inta.gatech.edu Areas included in model:
8. Global 2000 Revisited: What Shall We Do?Global 2000 Revisited: What Shall We Do? (1993)No software exists. Paper model is an update of the computer model Global 2000 Global 2000, used during the Carter administration as a decision-making tool, is a model which covers the critical issues of the 21st century. It is based on projections of probable changes in the world economy, population, resources, and environment. The updated paper version gives an in-depth analysis of these issues and further predictions for the turn of the century. Contact: Gerald O. Barney Institute for 21st Century Studies 1611 North Kent St., Suite 204 Arlington, VA 22209-2111 Areas included in model:
9. World3 (1974)World3 (1992)The World3 code from 1971 needs a DYNAMO compiler. It is run on DOS/ Windows. World3 was designed by Dennis & Donella Meadows and later became the subject for their book, Limits To Growth. The sequel Beyond the Limits used a slightly modified model called World3/91. World3 includes a range of scenarios from disaster to sustainability. Assumptions are programmable. Areas included in model:
10. World3/91World3/91IBM PC compatibles. Needs a STELLA simulation package. This model was developed from the Meadows' book Beyond the Limits which demonstrated that the current trends could be manipulated to result in economic demise or a sustainable future, depending on the causal relationships between variables over the long term. Contact: Dennis Meadows, University of New Hampshire, Laboratory for Interactive Learning - Hood House, 89 Main St., Durham, NH 03824-3577, Tel: 603-862-2186 FAX: 603-862-1488 Areas included in model:
11. STRATEGEMSTRATE-GEMMAC, IBM PC compatibles STRATAGEM is a dynamic simulation addressing global issues such as economic and population growth in a decision-making environment. The World Bank is currently using this sophisticated game in its training programs. Contact: Dennis Meadows, University of New Hampshire, Laboratory for Interactive Learning - Hood House, 89 Main St., Durham, NH 03824-3577, Tel: 603-862-2186 FAX: 603-862-1488 Areas included in model:
12. FUGI - Futures of Global InterdependenceFUGI Futures of Global InterdependenceData collection in process FUGI, the longest-lived global integrated model was the first computer simulation to be created outside of the western world. It was developed as a tool for providing global issues to the world community for the purpose of policy formation. Originally a compilation of three models, Yoichi Kaya of Osaka University undertook this project in 1976. Contact: Professor Akira Onishi, see GEWS inf. on next page. Areas included in model:
13. GEWS - Global Early Warning SystemGEWS (Global Early Warning System)Data collection in process GEWS, the longest lived global model, has undergone continuous development. It began in the mid 1970's under the name of FUGI as a response to Donella & Dennis Meadows and J. Randers' World3. Variables include: disarmament, foreign aid, protectionism, and economic growth. The updated version includes hard variables such as economics as well as soft variables such as human rights, and specifically is a tool used in locating displaced persons. GEWS is funded by the Japanese Ministry for International Trade & Industry (MITI) and the Japanese Economic Planning Agency (EPA). Contact: Professor Akira Onishi @ the Institute of Applied Economic Research at Soka University 1-236, Tangi-cho Hachioji-shi, Tokyo 192 JAPAN Tel: 81-426-91-2211 or 9430, FAX: 81-426-91-3719 Areas included in model:
14. GLOBUS - Generating Long-Term Options By Using SimulationGLOBUS (Generating Long-Term Options By Using Simulation)IBM PC compatibles Micro-GLOBUS runs on DOS/ Windows GLOBUS is one of the most recent integrated models. It has sub-models for domestic politics, international relations, and government budgetary decision-making. There are no comprehensive scenarios for food, energy, or demographics. Co-designed by the late Karl Deutsch. Contact: Professor Stuart Bremer, Dept. of Political Science, Binghamton University, Binghamton, NY 13901. Tel: 607-777-4398 Areas included in model:
15. SARUM - Systems Analysis Research Unit ModelSARUM (Systems Analysis Research Unit Model)Mainframe computer SARUM began in 1974 under Peter Roberts. It was the starting point for other models, as it was a multi regional economic model which encompassed environmental issues. The first practical use was in the Interfutures Project of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - U.K. Basic goal of the model is Pareto's Optimum, increasing the quality of life for the masses without diminishing another group's well-being. Contact: Peter Brecke Areas included in model:
16. GIOM - The Global Input-Output ModelThe Global Input-Output Model (GIOM)Mainframe computers, partially run on PCs The Global Input-Output Model was developed by Wassily Leontif, Petri, and Carter in the mid 1970's. The model contains 16 regions with 44 industries each, and linearly maps economic trends over 6 decades. Funded by the United Nations, they also published a companion work entitled The Future of the World Economy (1977). WI is known as the UN Model which was later revised by Lentil and Fay Du chin at NY in 1983. The most recent version (The World Model) is outlined in Du chin and Flange's book, The Future of the Environment (1994),
and is funded by the Norwegian government.Contact: Dr. Faye Duchin at NYU, New York, NY Areas included in model:
17. SIM/GDPSIM/GDPData collection in process SIM/GDP is a socio-economic model under the direction of Viktor Gelovani. This model, created in 1977, is a conglomeration of sub-models dealing with science and technology which interact with the main global model. Contact: Sergey Dubovsky @ Institute for Systems Analysis, Russian Academy of Sciences, 9 Prospekt 60-Let Oktyabria 117312, Moscow RUSSIA Tel: 7-095-135-6093, Email: postmast@isa.msk.su Areas included in model:
18. IFs90 - International FuturesIFs90 (Intl. Futures)IBM PC compatibles, Microsoft BASIC Designed by Barry Hughes in 1990, IFs90 incorporates significant aspects of WIM, SARUM, and WIOM. IFs90 is a human development model which represents demographics, energy supply, food production, and economic development in 10 global regions. It is an interactive model with a base case scenario. The mid-80's version of IFs was the first integrated global simulation to run on a PC. Contact: Barry B. Hughes, Vice Provost for Graduate Studies, University of Denver, CO 80208-001 Areas included in model:
19. LINKLINKUnited Nations in-house mainframe computer LINK began in 1969 with 7 industrialized country models. LINK is an econometrics model used by the United Nations for policy analyses and economic decision-making. It is a short to mid-term model which encompasses national economic analyses. It essentially "links" various macroeconomics models for 79 countries/regions. Contact: Peter Pauly Project LINK Coordinator University of Toronto 140 St. George St. Toronto, ON M5S 1A1 Areas included in model:
20. Threshold 21IBM PC compatiblesThreshold 21 is a national decision-making model based on sustainable development. The Millennium Institute has currently applied the model to Bangladesh in interactive or base-case versions. China, India, and the Australian case are in progress. The core of Threshold 21 is the World Bank's Revised Minimum Standard Model (RMSM) which creates an economic-centric base. The parameters include demographics, health care, food and nutrition, international trade, national accounts, environment, education, agriculture, etc. Contact: Dr. Weishuang Qu, Director of Information Systems, Millennium Institute, 1611 North Kent St., Ste. 204, Arlington, VA 22209-2135 Areas included in model:
21. Global Recall 2.0 Global
Recall 2.0
22. The Bariloche ModelThe Bariloche ModelMainframe computers. This model's principal focus is the pursuit of the question, "What future world would be best for humankind?" through the use of mathematics optimization. The Bariloche Model was a response to World3, and originated from a meeting in Brazil with the Club of Rome and the Universitario Pesquisas de Rio de Janeiro. The Bariloche Group preferred a model which would outline the path to sustainable development rather than predict doomsday. The Bariloche Model was officially presented in 1974 to IIASA. Contact: Jacqueline Prud'Homme International Development Research Center PO Box 8500, Ottawa, CAN K1G 3H9 Tel: (613) 236-6163 FAX: (613) 238-7230 Areas included in model:
23. DaisyworldDaisyworldMac Plus or above. Daisyworld is based on James Lovelock's Gaia Hypothesis of an interconnected Earth. This is an interactive model which focuses on a planet like Earth, yet much more simplistic. The basic assumption is that the Daisyworld's living systems affect climate. Daisies are a variable of manipulation as is the sun's intensity. The user can adjust the equations and model parameters. Contact: Kenneth Simons Dept. of Social and Decision Sciences Carnegie-Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890 Areas included in model:
24. SimEarth: the Living PlanetSimEarth The Living PlanetDOS, Windows and Mac versions SimEarth is a planet simulation game which may be run in two modes: game and experimental. Variables revolve around all facets of Earth such as climate, atmosphere, flora, fauna, beings, etc. SimEarth is the closest traditional model to the newly developed "artificial society" simulations. Contact: Designers Will Wright and Fred Haslam, MAXIS Two Theater Square, Ste. 230 Orinda, CA 94563-3401 Tel: 510-254-9700 FAX: 510-253-3736 Areas included in model:
25. The Global Dilemma: Guns or ButterThe Global Dilemma: Guns or ButterIBM PC compatible, Mac Plus, SE or II computer This model is a computer simulation game centered around macroeconomics. The purpose of the game is to control the world's resources, make weapons, and conquer the world. Contact: Chris Crawford Mindscape Inc., 19808 Nordhoff Place, Chatsworth, CA 91311 Areas included in model:
AcknowledgmentsSpecial thanks to John McLeod for his simulation expertise and insights, Peter Brecke for his abundant information, editing, and advice, Walter Venable for his matrix design and formatting, and Tom Zaengle for all of his help.Global Model Index compiled by Amy Bruton for Global Energy Network Institute (GENI), 1995. All contents Copyright © 1995 , Global Energy Network Institute (GENI). All Rights Reserved.
|
