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The Energy Challenge 2004 - Hydrogen
11.30.04
Murray Duffin, Retired
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Much has been written about the hydrogen economy
(HE), and much misunderstood. In fact the label itself
is probably a misnomer. Many in the USA believe that
the Administration's hydrogen initiative is just a
way to postpone doing anything useful about energy
for as long as possible. If so it has backfired. Widespread
research on all aspects of hydrogen production, storage,
transportation and use is evident, not just in the
USA, but worldwide, and technological advances are
appearing at a bewildering rate. The subject is so
large that only a few highlights will be touched on
here.
Regrettably, a relatively small number of skeptics
have been given undue publicity, presenting inaccuracies,
distortions, errors and outright falsehoods, even
in respectable peer reviewed journals. Misleading
papers have appeared this year in Science, The Scientific
American, and Solar Today to name just a few. It is
important to try to present a more balanced view,
especially as the future of the electrical industry
will be shaped to no small degree by the evolution
of the "hydrogen economy".
Skeptics
Anti-hydrogen published papers all suffer from some
or several of the following thought/analysis weaknesses:
- A failure to see the nature and evolution of
the HE in practical terms and in the context of
the total energy picture, including obvious alternatives.
- Postulating a near 100% switch to hydrogen, implying
renewable electricity generation, conversion to
hydrogen, transport of hydrogen to region of energy
need, and then reconversion into electricity.
- Incorrect figures for efficiency of hydrogen
generation and compression.
- Wrong infrastructure assumptions, primarily relative
to hydrogen transport.
- Storage density assumptions that are much worse
than is already being achieved.
- Analyses based on old technology, with the implicit
assumption of no technological progress.
- Consideration of hydrogen production only by
electrolysis.
- Cost comparisons done per unit of energy contained
instead of per unit of service provided.
- Failure to consider whole system implications
when estimating energy efficiencies and costs.
- Grossly exaggerated safety issues, and failure
to consider the natural safety features of hydrogen.
One of the most frequently quoted references is
a paper1,2 by Bossel and Eliasson which
has the appearance of being quite scientific, but
is in fact largely wrong, due to both direct errors
and wrong thinking.
Quick research
Any of the authors that have misrepresented the practicality
of the HE could have discovered the following facts
with an hour or so of googling:
- Stuart Energy sells prepackaged alkaline electrolysis
systems with 85% cell efficiency LHV, and 73% system
efficiency compressed to 5000 psi, using unheated
feedwater.
- Fully absorbed cost of hydrogen at 10% after
tax IRR, with electricity at average industrial
cost of 4.83cents/kwh, would be $5.60/kg for such
a system as a forecourt supply, and at today’s
capital cost. Electricity is 88% of this cost.
- Such cells can reach near 90% efficiency with
100+ deg. C feedwater
- Successful experiments have been conducted with
ionic activators to raise the efficiency of alkaline
electrolysis by 10%.
- PEM electrolysers operate at 80 - 85% efficiency,
and have a theoretical upper limit of 94% if we
can develop high temperature membranes. Progress
on high temperature membranes is promising.
- Solid oxide steam electrolysers have reached
90 -95% efficiency in the lab, but are not yet commercially
available.
- Hydrogen can be compressed to 5000 psi at >90%
efficiency and 95% efficiency with electrolyser
precompression.
- The oxygen "byproduct" of electrolyzing water
can be used in many processes to raise the efficiency
and lower the NOX of those processes. Oxygen enhanced
combustion raises combustion efficiency by 25-30%.
- PEM air fuel cells are already at 45-50% efficiency.
PEM direct oxygen FCs are at 59% efficiency at rated
load and 69% at 20% load. Up to 80% is expected
in the future.
- Through 2002 almost all fuel cell design/improvement
was empirical. Only in 2003 did advanced computer
models become available to accelerate progress.
- Microturbine/SOFC hybrid FC systems are at 53%
electrical efficiency installed, and modeling during
2004 has shown the path to 67%. The goal is 70%
by2010.
- Hydrogen can be generated during off peak hours
to operate coal and nuclear generators at max. efficiency
24/24. Waste heat from the generators will improve
electrolysis efficiency. Nighttime electricity can
be profitably provided at <4 cents/kWh.
- Targeted worst case storage density for automotive
fuel tanks is >5.5% of hydrogen by weight, and
11% at 5000 psi has already been achieved in conformable
tanks that exceed requirements for overpressure
and cycling, and 11.4% in lithium nitride.
When these facts are factored into anti-hydrogen
papers, the papers become nonsensical. New equipment
that uses all of the efficiency advances listed above,
can reach >84 efficiency for hydrogen compressed
to 5000 psi, and given energy credit for the oxygen
generated, total system efficiency can reach at least
90%. Hydrogen cost would then drop to $4.60/kg. Electricity
to hydrogen to electricity efficiency (e.g. for wind
turbine buffering) will reach >60% efficiency,
double what is assumed now.
What is the Hydrogen Economy?
The primary uses of hydrogen will be replacement of
dwindling supplies of petroleum derived transport
fuel, and buffering of intermittent renewable electricity
sources. Hydrogen appears to be the best choice for
the transport task, but critics feel that batteries
or battery/FC stores like zinc/air fuel cells will
prove to be viable alternatives. Quite possibly all
3 will prove feasible.
With NG also in decline, we have to look at how
it is used. 8% is used today as a source of hydrogen,
and almost 90% of the hydrogen is used to produce
gasoline, and ammonia for fertilizer. As NG prices
rise in the USA ammonia production is being moved
offshore. As petroleum availability declines, the
need for hydrogen for gasoline will decline. NG cost
is already at a level to make hydrolysis competitive
with NG reforming. This is the likely path to large-scale
commercialization of hydrolysis.
More important is the 22% of NG used for residential
purposes, mainly home heating, and 23% used for electricity
generation. Some of the electricity generation is
CCGT with efficiencies near 50%, but the bulk is older
SCGTs with <25% efficiency. Globally the efficiency
is probably <30% today. If the residential gas
was consumed in an efficient SOFC with waste heat
captured for heating and cooling, the NG could be
used about 70- 80% efficiently (instead of the centralized
<30%). The fuel cells exist, but are still expensive.
However as NG prices rise, and carbon penalties enter
the scene, gas suppliers or electric utilities will
probably get into the home fuel cell business, instead
of building more centralized generating plants. This
is already happening in Japan. RMI sees the secondary
aspect of the HE as building cogeneration, with NG
being a bridge to the hydrogen economy. Certainly
such a step can at least double the efficiency of
NG consumption, and is therefore desirable, but the
benefit with hydrogen is not clear.
How much hydrogen?
The main purpose of the HE is to use hydrogen to replace
petroleum as a portable fuel for vehicles. For cars
the key is to have lightweight, efficient FC vehicles,
e.g. "hypercars" with fuel cells. The present car
fleet averages 24 mpg. The Prius HEV already gets
better than 40 mpg, and is not lightweight. A hypercar
version of the Prius would get 80-90 mpg, and a full
size family car would get at least 70 mpg. If we then
replace the ICE with a FC we will more than double
tank to wheel efficiency, giving us >140 mpg equivalent.
In trucks and buses there is not much room to improve
rolling efficiency, but better FC saving is possible,
probably close to factor 3. Overall factor 5 is probably
achievable. (Note-PEM fuel cells are already being
used to power submarines). The approximately 28 quads
of petroleum used in the USA for road transportation
can be replaced in the next 25 to 30 years by efficiency
plus < 6 quads of hydrogen. Buffering 15 quads
of wind at 2010 expected efficiencies can be done
with less than 3 quads of hydrogen. A mere 10 quads
of hydrogen will go a long way to powering the so-called
hydrogen economy. If batteries and/or metal/air fuel
cells prove out, even less hydrogen will be needed.
Another alternative to hydrogen for transport is likely
to be oil generated from the thermal depolymerisation
of agricultural waste, scrapped tires and municipal
sewage. If this technology is widely deployed during
the next 2-3 decades it could provide 1-2 Gb of diesel
oil equivalent, or perhaps 20% of our current annual
oil consumption, replacing at least 1 quad of the
above estimated hydrogen.
Where do we get the hydrogen?
It has been estimated that conversion of current USA
waste biomass could supply 2.7 quads of hydrogen.
The 15 quads of dispatchable wind described in “The
Energy Challenge 2004 – Wind”, would produce
enough excess energy to generate 4 quads of hydrogen
above that needed for buffering. Clean coal electricity
generation byproduct would supply another significant
increment. There are several other potential sources,
including photolysis from waste water treatment plants
or algae, solar thermochemical water splitting, and
industrial process byproduct. We probably need additional
electricity for no more than 1-2 quads of hydrogen.
This amount can be supplied from the present electrical
infrastructure on less than 6 hours per night.
Cost considerations
The 2005 cost of hydrogen by electrolysis given above
is $5.60/kg with electricity at 4.83 cents/kWh and
73% efficiency. At 3 cents/kWh and 80% efficiency
this would translate to $3.45/kg. Hydrogen from NG
reforming, with NG at $6.00/Mbtu and electricity at
3Cents/kWh has been estimated by Amory Lovins as $2.50/kg.
Hydrogen from waste biomass is estimated at $2.80/kg.
It seems safe to count on a hydrogen cost =< $5.00/kg,
with some probability of reaching $3.00/kg average.
As 1 kg of hydrogen is comparable to 1 gal. of gasoline
on an energy basis this cost still appears uncompetitive.
However, recall that it is the cost per unit of service,
not per unit of energy that counts.
At a before tax cost of $1.50/gal. and 25 mpg, gasoline
costs 6 cents/mile. At a cost of $5.00/kg and 140
mpg equivalent, hydrogen costs only 3.6 cents/mi.
At $3.00/kg the hydrogen powered car would only have
to deliver 50 mi/gal equivalent to equal gasoline
at today’s price. This is much less than the
FreedomCAR goal, and the FreedomCAR does not consider
low rolling resistance design. Hydrogen is not just
competitive, it is sufficiently attractive relative
to rising gasoline prices, to drive a free market
economy switchover during the coming years. However
an intelligent energy policy could accelerate the
transition, and make it smoother rather then letting
it be crisis driven.
Interestingly, given credit for the byproduct oxygen
produced, hydrolysis would be competitive with reforming
NG at a NG price of <$7.00/Mbtu, and we are already
there. Critics have suggested that the oxygen credit
is insignificant because oxygen is priced at about
10 cents/kg today, or $.80 of oxygen per kg of hydrogen.
This criticism misses the point that oxygen today
is a byproduct of producing nitrogen, and is not produced
in enough quantity to support a use like oxygen enhanced
combustion on a useful scale. Produced in sufficient
quantity, e.g. as a byproduct of hydrogen production,
oxygen would have a considerably higher value because
of its contribution to combustion efficiency, making
hydrolysis even more attractive.
The other key issue is fuel cell cost. In 1990 the
estimated high volume production cost of PEM fuel
cells was $3000/kW, dominated by platinum at 20 grams/kW.
In 2004 platinum is down to 0.8 grams/kW and the estimated
high volume FC cost is $225/kW. A FC car is estimated
to need 50-80 Kw and the target price for FCs is $30.00/kW
by 2015, but this does not take into a count a super
efficient hypercar. The hypercar needs closer to 20
kW, so $100.00/Kw would be good, and that may be achieved
before 2010.
What about infrastructure?
For filling station forecourt generation of hydrogen,
energy will be transferred to point of use as electricity,
using the existing infrastructure. For locally sited
building cogeneration NG will be transported by the
existing infrastructure. The major need for new infrastructure
will be the forecourt hydrolysers. The technology
already exists but large refueling stations would
need scaled up units. The cost of converting the needed
filling stations over a 30 year period is estimated
to be 100-200 billion dollars, much less than the
petroleum industry puts into E&D and infrastructure
over a similar period (or less than the war in Iraq
in a much shorter period).
Of course there is always the chicken and egg problem
of which comes first, the vehicles or the infrastructure,
and without some volume how do we get the infrastructure
cost down. The cost problem is likely to be solved
by Japan and China, both of whom are pushing ahead
very rapidly. Japan has hydrogen FC cars on the road
and China has ordered 10,000 hydrogen fueled buses
to be delivered in time for the 2008 Olympics. This
problem will get solved, whether by us or not.
As NG becomes scarcer it can be supplemented with
hydrogen to make town gas for many uses, and finally,
much of the NG pipeline network can be lined with
a polymer barrier and used for hydrogen transmission.
Salt caverns have already been used successfully for
large-scale storage. A large share of the hydrogen
needed for wind buffering can be stored under pressure
in the wind turbine towers.
Hydrogen safety3,4
RMI has produced a few foils nicely addressing this
issue. The main points deal with the inherent characteristics
of hydrogen that make it safer than gasoline. Hydrogen
is 8 times lighter and 4 times more diffusive than
methane and 12 times more diffusive than gasoline
fumes. It dissipates quickly and cannot accumulate
unless trapped by e.g. a ceiling. In air, exposed
to a flame or spark, it burns long before it reaches
an explosive concentration, and is 22 times less explosive
than gasoline. It burns upwards in a narrow plume
and emits very little radiant heat. You almost have
to be in the flame to be burned. Tanks designed to
contain hydrogen have survived 50 mph crash tests
without rupturing.
Transition to the HE
NG production in North America is likely to be halved
before 2015. It is likely that onshore production
plus LNG imports can then maintain 10 Tcf or so of
supply for a couple of decades after that. Much of
the early NG shortfall will be compensated by efficiency
improvements and demand destruction. Large-scale hydrogen
replacement will be 1-2 decades away. If petroleum
availability declines at 5%/yr, it will take 26 years
to get to ¼ of the present supply. Very early on,
rising gasoline prices will stimulate the shift to
more efficient cars, and finally fuel cell cars. One
leading market research firm has estimated that HEVs
will be 20%+ of North American auto production by
2010, and that without incentives. Hydrogen FC cars
will likely appear shortly thereafter, but demand
will grow gradually. Without energy policy incentives
car fleet replacement is unlikely to be complete before
2040. A government “feebate” policy to
encourage replacement of gas guzzlers with efficient
vehicles could accelerate this process. Wind energy
growth is also likely to be a 30-year proposition.
Conclusions
- The driver of the HE will be declining NG and
petroleum supplies.
- The primary need is efficiency, especially more
efficient FCs and cars.
- The primary problem is still cost, mainly of
FCs and storage tanks, but the major cost issues
will be resolved by a combination of research and
volume production.
- Supporters, in addition to skeptics, are suffering
from important misconceptions, e.g.:
- The government is spending major sums to drive
down FC cost below what would be necessary with
more efficient cars. Focusing on more efficient
cars would be more productive.
- RMI sees NG as a bridge, rather than a problem
and driver.
- The electric utility and gas industries need
to start looking at distributed FC cogeneration,
urgently.
- Large-scale electrolysis, raising the return
on off-hour generation, is a major profit opportunity
for electric utilities.
- The transition to the HE will be a rapid evolution,
not a revolution, and it is already well under way.
References:
1) http://www.efcf.com/reports/E02_Hydrogen_Economy_Report.pdf
2) http://www.hyweb.de/News/LBST_Comments-on-Eliasson-Bossel-
Papers_July2003_protected.pdf
3) hgovttp://www.rmi.org/images/other/Energy/E03-15_H2FutureOfEnergy.pdf
4) http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/History/SP-4404/ch8-6.htm
H2
Other Sources:
http://www.eere.energy./hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/35948.pdf
http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/annual_report03.html
http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/iid1_milliken.pdf
http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/separ_02_intro_anderson.pdf
http://www.fuelcellseminar.com/pdf/2003/Davis.pdf
http://www.protonenergy.com/index.php/html/gasproducts/datacharts/index.html
http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20041030/bob10.asp
Readers Comments
Date |
Comment |
Len Gould
11.30.04 |
Murray: Another
good article. Those are dramatically lower figures
for platinum requirement than I've seen before.
Also no mention of the difficulties of operating
a PEM FC at below freezing temperatures. I assume
lack of space dictates the failure to address
the issue of a need for a factor of five increase
in life of the NAFion PEM membranes which currently
don't live beyond 1000 hrs. and are the subject
of much investigation. And I'd like to see some
evaluation tests of eg. 250 bar H2 fuel tanks
as terrorist explosive devices. Would you allow
one into the basement of your apartment building?
I also find the Ovonics fuel cell very interesting,
essentially a NiMH battery adapted to pump H2
into the cells to supplement the H2 normally
stored in it when operating as a battery. Uses
no platinum catalyst. Tested to -20 deg. so
far. Eliminates the 2 min. startup time of PEM's
and can recover, store and return the regen
braking energy in the fuel cell. Very rational
at first view. http://ovonic.com/sol_srv/3_2_fuel_cell_sol/fuel_cel_solutions.htm
Ideal cycle for efficiency, however, is still
the boron / oxygen engine.
|
Len Gould
11.30.04 |
Sorry, of course
I meant to say 330 to 660 bar H2 fuel tanks, not
the 250 typical of CNG.
|
Murray Duffin
11.30.04 |
Thanks for the
url on Ovshinski's latest Len. I had not gone
there because Ovshinski has hyped so many things
in the past that never quite got there that I
have been turned off. It looks like he may have
it this time, if Texaco is willing to invest heavily.
I didn't find any data on storage by weight so
would guess that there is srill some problem,
but overall it looks promising. I didn't get into
PEM temperature and lifetime issues because the
technology is moving so fast that what you KNOW
today will be wrong tomorrow. They don't put PEM
fuel cells in a submarine with 1000 hr lifetime.
Yeah, I'd allow a 5000 psi tank into my basement.
The whole issue of storage by adsorption or absorption
could take up another paper, and isn't really
a subject matter for EnergyPulse. Murray
|
Roger Arnold
11.30.04 |
Roger - I admit I largely buy the RMI "koolaid",
but not without reason. The Prius is already
a large part of the technology. Lotus has built
lightweight fiber composite cars for years and
sold them affordably (albeit expensively) even
with hand layup. The only thing keeping carbon
fibre cost high is lack of really high volume
production. Mazda has a new Miata concept car
almost ready to roll out with a carbon fibre
composite body shell. Daihatsu had a concept
car at the Jan. 2004 Tokyo motor show with a
light weight body, hybrid drive, and claimed
140 mpg. Even though the starting raw material
for a fibre composite body is much more expensive
than sheet steel today, by the time the steel
is cut, formed, cleaned, welded, and painted
the body shell cost is pretty close to a fibre
composite body with the color baked in, and
the capital cost for the fibre composite body
is much less than for the steel one. RMI has
had their projections validated both by retired
American auto engineers and by Lotus engineering.
The big obstacles are entrenched thinking of
current auto engineers and managers, who are
a very conservative bunch, and the existing
capital sunk cost. When the Japanese start selling
the next generation lightweight hybrids in the
USA, and the waiting lists are again long, Detroit
again will reluctantly move in the right direction.
It will probably take at least another 10 years,
but the hand writing is on the wall. Murray
|
Murray Duffin
12.1.04 |
Roger - I admit
I largely buy the RMI "koolaid", but not without
reason. The Prius is already a large part of the
technology. Lotus has built lightweight fibre
composire cars for years and sold them affordably
(albeit expensively) even with hand layup. The
only thing keeping carbon fibre cost high is lack
of really high volume production. Mazda has a
new Miata concept car almost ready to roll out
with a carbon fibre composite body shell. Daihatsu
had a concept car at the Jan. 2004 Tokyo motor
show with a light weight body, hybrid drive, and
claimed 140 mpg. Even though the starting raw
material for a fibre composite body is much more
expensive than sheet steel today, by the time
the steel is cut, formed, cleaned, welded, and
painted the body shell cost is pretty close to
a fibre composite body with the color baked in,
and the capital cost for the fibre composite body
is much less than for the steel one. RMI has had
their projections validated both by retired American
auto engineers and by Lotus engineering. The big
obstacles are entrenched thinking of current auto
engineers and managers, who are a very conservative
bunch, and the existing capital sunk cost. When
the Japanese start selling the next generation
lightweight hybrids in the USA, and the waiting
lists are again long, Detroit again will reluctantly
move in the right direction. It will probably
take at least another 10 years, but the hand writing
is on the wall. Murray
|
Murray Duffin
12.1.04 |
Oh yeah - one
more point. Even if the initial cost for the lightweight
car is high, I think that cost can be brought
down much mote readily than can the cost of the
fuel cells and the hydrogen storage. There are
no technological issues, only financial and psychological
ones. Murray
|
Richard J. McCann
12.1.04 |
Your discussion
of the criticisms of the new "hydrogen economy"
misses several key aspects: - Using natural gas
or coal as the fuel stock and/or electricity source
defeats the primary motive for conversion--reductions
in GCC related gases. As pointed out in the many
of the articles, emissions could actually RISE.
As for production form nuclear power, that production
is already claimed and there is little prospect
for significant new capacity. As for renewables,
its unlikely that we'll add enough new capacity
to meet our current growing electricity demand,
much less adding the entire equivalent implied
capacity of our transportation fleet. For comparison,
the entire truck fleet of California totals more
equivalent MW (60,000+) than all of the state's
current electricity generation (45,000 MW), and
that does not include the smaller automobiles
and Class I and II light trucks. - Using automotive
batteries for transportation is now an acknowledged
dead end as projected production cost savings
and life extension were not sufficient to make
them economic except under extreme conditions.
- Your presumption that FC costs will fall almost
90% to $30/kW are unrealistic. The huge implied
increase in demand will send platinum prices skyrocketing
(and leave us entirely dependent on only 2 nations
for production--Russia and South Africa--so much
for energy independence). Even today's diesel
engines cost about $100/hp, and turbines cost
$300/kW. - NRC has looked at the costs of increasing
fuel economy substantially and found that the
assumptions used by RMI, ACEEE and others are
unrealistic. Politicians like to quote these optimistic
numbers to that they can claim to be "green",
but the truth is that they are economic pie in
the sky. It's not just engineering interia that
limits these technologies--economic history (learning
by doing) tells us that the high initial costs
are reflective of expected future costs. (And
not to mention the toxicity issues related to
substantial carbon-fiber production.) It is for
these and other reasons that the skeptics have
poked holes in the hydrogen dream.
|
Graham Cowan
12.1.04 |
Repeated references to "hydrolysis", meaning
splitting of water, are grating. Things that
dissolve irreversibly in water are hydrolysed,
i.e. broken by water. Breaking of water
is beyond the range of meanings that word can
usefully have. "Water-splitting" is a good expression
to use, or if by electricity, water electrolysis.
I agree Bossel and Eliasson are too dismissive
of liquid hydrogen, in effect knocking over
a compressed-gaseous-hydrogen strawman. This
is obviously a hazardous procedure!
Over the years many hydrogen cars have existed
in the lab (cf. the hydrogen
car timeline) and, to the best of
my knowledge, no aluminum-burning ones.
But that just means aluminum-burning cars in
real-world service are equally numerous with
hydrogen cars so serving. Aluminum would be
lighter and safer, and already is produced on
a large scale using renewable energy.
--- Graham Cowan, former hydrogen fan
Boron:
A Better Energy Carrier than Hydrogen?
|
Robert Hoffman
12.1.04 |
Thanks for a great
article and perspective on hydrogen as an energy
medium. Coming from an independent power and deregulated
energy perspective, I am intrigued by hydrogen's
potential. I am confident hydrogen will be part
of a long-term solution to our energy needs. From
my perspective, hydogen is not an energy resource,
but rather is a medium to transport energy, much
the way steam is an energy transporter using water
as a medium. The fact that it takes other forms
of energy and associated environmental impacts
to produce hydrogen is not necessarily a bad thing
if the sum of all components results in a net
positive benefit (cleaner air and increased overall
energy resource efficiency). I think there is
more to the Hydrogen Economy than we fully appeciate.
Chapter 8 of Jeremy Riflin's book "the Hydrogen
Economy" struck an important chord in his reference
to a "Hydrogen Energy Web" where fuel cells paired
with hydrogen production are part of a network
of distributed generation and hydrogen sources,
working with existing utility distribution infrastructure
to exchange electric energy to and from a network,
much like the the way internet is a network to
exchange information. While costs may be high
today, the real frontier for hydrogen is development
of a viable storage process. Another challenge
we face is to bring hydrogen in line with other
energy applications. The economics of most energy
processes are measured on a energy conversion
heat rate (BTU/kWh or kJ/kWh), $/MMBTU (or $/kJ)
variable cost, and $/kW fixed cost basis, regardless
of whether for power generation, transportation,
or thermal (heat) process. A gallon of gasoline
has about 155,000 BTU/gallon (HHV) which at $2.30/gallon
(I live in California), works out to about $15.00/MMBTU.
I realize there is more to hydrogen than a simple
energy conversion, but it would be great to have
some numbers or analysis expressing hydrogen energy
processes on a net heat rate (BTU/kWh), $/MMBTU,
and $/kW basis.
Bob Hoffman Energy Dynamix Corporation
|
Murray Duffin
12.1.04 |
Ah Richard, I
do love those who know what can't be done. Interestingly
the cost of wind energy fell about 90% in a decade
or so. No big deal. The cost of a bit of DRAM
memory has fallen 5 orders of magnitude in 30
years. There are dozens of universities and corporations
and hundreds of very clever people busily beavering
away to do precisely those things that you know
can't be done. Who do you think will be right
in the end? I'll bet on the very clever people.
Please read my prior articles and watch for the
next couple. You will be amazed! Murray
|
Len Gould
12.1.04 |
Richard: Statements
like "And not to mention the toxicity issues related
to substantial carbon-fiber production." just
completely discredit your entire thesis. Do you
also believe silicon transistors will never be
developed simply because the process may involve
some toxic processes? And, the last time I checked,
no-one else ever mention toxic process in the
producing of carbon fibers. Producing poly-acrylic-nitrile
fiber base should be no more toxic than producing
the materials in most clothes. Alternatives based
on pitches use mainly carbon wastes from petroleum
processing or coal dust. Producing composites
is a long matured industry used currently to manufacture
everything from bathtubs to lawn furniture, and
I don't see why auto bodies should be any more
of a problem.
Of course, you auto engineers may know some
secret reason why it is better to leave development
of solutions to future problems to the Japanese
or Europeans (or Chinese).
|
Len Gould
12.2.04 |
Murray: It is
an interesting coincidence that just today an
announcement which I noticed on PhysOrg website
but can no longer find, relevant to thermal electrolysis,
eg see INEEL
Hydrogen Website stated that they
have demonstrated a 50% net thermal efficiency
in producing hydrogen from high temperature electrolysis
tests in a system which can be used with a nuclear
reactor (apparently a gen IV type, not the current
ones). Assuming they can get this operating and
scaled up, I'm thinking the debate on "Where's
the hydrogen Going to Come From" will be about
done.
|
Len Gould
12.2.04 |
Actually the reason
I couldn't find it on PhysOrg was because it was
on E4Engineering, at E4Engineering
Article
"We've shown that hydrogen can be produced
at temperatures and pressures suitable for a
Generation IV reactor," said lead INEEL researcher
Steve Herring. "The simple and modular approach
we've taken with our research partners produces
either hydrogen or electricity, and most notable
of all achieves the highest-known production
rate of hydrogen by high-temperature electrolysis."
On re-reading, it appears they may not have
actually progressed as far as I'd thought. Still,
getting there.
Thanks GRL Cowan at Boron
Blast - Boron a Better Energy Carrier
for tips on posting links.
And I still think the boron / oxygen cycle
engine beats hydrogen.
|
Jim Beyer
12.2.04 |
If one assumes
carbon dioxide (CO2) is the optimum carrier for
hydrogen, then almost everything you have written
is true, but the final portrait would look much
different. Combining 4 hydrogen molecules with
1 carbon dioxide molecule in a Sabatier reactor
(nickel or ruthenium catalyst) produces 1 methane
molecule and 2 water molecules that can be recycled
to reduce your electrolysis water needs by 50%.
I suppose one could also entertain ammonia instead
(using N2), but though denser than hydrogen, it
is still an awkward fuel that has no infrastructure
either. Maybe we can consider ammonia if we can't
find enough available CO2.
The methane retains 80% of the original energy
content of the 4 hydrogen molecules. Compared
with the efficiency of electrolysis, this is
a greater improvement in energy density for
the energy expended, so it should definitely
be done if the CO2 is available. A two-pipe
system of CH4/CO2 (moving in opposite directions)
moves energy more efficiently than a single
pipeline of H2 because the molecule count is
reduced by 50%, but the energy stored is reduced
by only 20%. Because the gas behavior is dominated
by particle count, not weight (remember PV =
nRT ?), the heavier system of CH4/CO2 still
takes less energy to move than the bulky H2.
There is plenty of CO2 for now, and more will
be available later. Biofuel production alone
produces enough byproduct CO2 (that is easily
captured and carbon-neutral) to support millions
of methane-driven vehicles. We just need the
hydrogen. In the future, all the pure O2 that
is a by-product of electrolysis can be used
to facilitate CO2 capture at stationary plants
(I can explain that more if anyone is curious).
The reason this will supplant any effort to
building a pure H2 economy are threefold: infrastructure
is already in place, the medium is 3.2 times
denser energetically than H2, the system can
co-exist with natural gas supplies.
H2 is a horrible fuel medium for vehicles.
Even if a FC was 100% efficient (LHV), the storage
requirements for hydrogen vs. methane would
still be larger, even if the methane is burned
in an engine that is only 33% efficient (LHV).
So, all things being equal, a FC car will have
less volume available to the customer. Efficiency
improvements for vehicles are far more effectively
accomplished with plug-in hybrids, which bypass
the whole fuel creation issue entirely. Since
a plug-in still has fuel powering it also (and
thus range), it shares virtually all the benefits
of an all-electric vehicle (including energy
efficiency) with none of the drawbacks. All
an automaker needs to build is a plug-in hybrid
that can run on methane. Heck, maybe a small
gas tank too. That's it. No fuel cells. No hydrogen.
No infrastructure changeover.
At the risk of sounding patronizing, the problem
with energy studies is that if just one piece
of information is out of place, one needs to
rewrite a whole strategy. Such is the case with
hydrogen. If energy storage via carbon is the
best strategy based on billions of years of
evolution, who are we to question it? The answer
seems clear to me (unless, of course, I've missed
a piece of information).
-Jim
|
Graham Cowan
12.2.04 |
Who are we? We're
what billions of years of evolution produces when
it "wants", so to speak, to tame fire and make
heat engines. That's who.
Arguing from the authority of Nature will,
if done consistently, take you some places you
probably don't want to go.
--- Graham Cowan, former hydrogen fan
Boron:
A Better Energy Carrier than Hydrogen?
|
Murray Duffin
12.2.04 |
Jim - I'm not
knocking your idea, because I haven't previously
thoight about it and don't fully understand it.
My first problem is with the infrastructure. We
don't have 2 way pipelines. However we do have
a complex network so it would be possible to transfer
CO2 one way and methane the other using different
pathways, at least for some source/destination
combos, but only after we no longer use these
paths for NG. Getting the CO2 to the hydrogen,
and the methane to the point of use is not obvious
with the existing infrastructure. Then let us
start with 10 quads of electricity ro generate
hydrogen at 90% efficiency. Then combine the hydrogen
with CO2 ro make methane that can be burned with
80% of the energy in the hydrogen. We now have
7.2 quads available as methane which we burn in
an ICE at 33% efficiency providing 2.4 quads ro
the drive shafts and maybe 2 quads to the wheels.
We use methane for 70% of the travel and battery
power from the plug in hybrid for the other 70%,
with let us say 85% battery efficiency. We have
66% combined efficiency ideally, pretty close
to what we can expect from the hydrogen system
in a few years. However if we used hydrogen in
a FC in place of the methane the 30% would be
at close to 60% efficiency instead of 20 % and
our combined efficiency would be 78%. Also we
can use the existing electrical infrastructure
to bring the energy to the point where we need
the hydrogen, so no 2 way pipeline and no conflict
with natural gas. If the source of CO2 is burning
coal for electricity, I'm not sure we would have
enough. I'm not a chemist and don't know how to
work out the amount of CO2 we would get from 23
quads of coal, and how much hydrogen we would
need to combine with it, and how many quads of
methane would result. We would need at least 6
quads of methane to replace 30% of 28 quads of
petroleum used for transportation now. If batteries
are not problematic in other ways I can see the
plug in hybrid having advantages, but I don't
see how methane would be as good as hydrogen,
especially after we run out of coal and don't
have the CO2 source. It seems to me you are trying
to cross a chasm in 2 jumps. Murray
|
Jim Beyer
12.2.04 |
Thanks for your
comments. I agree that using methane as an energy
medium is counterintuitive. There is an article
in www.evworld.com that touches on this.
Regarding infrastructure, the two pipelines
would not need to be set up extensively in practice,
only in a few select areas. As an example, consider
the wind resource of the Dakotas, a good potential
energy source for hydrogen production and which
would be expensive to access via the electrical
grid. If this hydrogen source was fed CO2 produced
from biofuel plants located around and near
that area, then only a few hundred miles of
CO2 pipeline is needed. The existing NG infrastructure
could pipe the produced methane out of that
area to points west, east and south.
By your own calculations, FCs net 18% more
efficency than methane if plug-in hybrids can
be employed. But you need to be careful to base
both systems on HHV, not LHV. The LHV for hydrogen
is only about 82% of its HHV, compared with
about 90% for methane (LHV/HHV). So if you are
assuming 90% (LHV) efficiency on your fuel cells,
this would translate into 74% (HHV). If I am
following your calculations correctly, this
puts the net efficiency of the FC back to 50%
(instead of 60%) and lowers the combined efficiency
to 75%. On the other hand, SOFCs (burning methane)
could bring the methane vehicle up to 40% (HHV),
for a combined efficiency of 72%. So this whole
hydrogen infrastructure may only net us 3% more
efficiency for our vehicles, certainly not the
2-3X efficiency improvement that some are claiming.
I know Bossel-Eliasson rattled some cages, but
their comments on the LHV/HHV issue are very
important.
I understand this seems to be placing a burden
on getting plug-in hybrids to work, but given
the market introduction of regular hybrids,
this seems a more likely bet than the near-term
introduction of fuel cell vehicles. As an aside,
the recent NAS study on hydrogen vehicles completely
omitted plug-in hybrids entirely. I cite this
as evidence of how dynamic this area is at present.
Finally, there is probably enough carbon-neutral
CO2 to go around. There is potentially 15 quads
of biomass available in the U.S., by some estimates.
Only about 3 is used now, so let's assume we
could get to 7 quads, just to be safe. If used
to produce biofuel, that would produce 7 quads
of fuel plus enough CO2 to support 7 more quads
of methane. Probably enough to go around. Plug-in
hybrids would help with this, as they would
reduce the amount of energy (as fuel) needed
by our vehicles.
Thanks for the discussion! I'd much rather
be shown to be wrong than to remain wrong-thinking,
so I think it's important to keep interrogating
each other until we can figure this all out.
-Jim
|
Graham Cowan
12.2.04 |
I think this was in the news a year ago. I
don't recall just where the methane was supposed
to get burned, but if it was in cars, there
are some details that were, as far as I recall,
only implied. I fill them in thus: to get back
to the Sabatier reactor, carbon dioxide from
a combustor exhaust port (through which it passes
in fairly dilute form) is cooled to a temperature
very near ambient, so cool that perhaps liquid
CO2 condensation is possible (temperature well
below the critical one of IIRC 31 Celsius).
That would allow some degree of separation from
nitrogen.
Kept in an onboard tank, the CO2 can be swapped
for methane at a refuelling point, and from
there travel through the return pipeline to
the power station.
There are already a few thousand cars with
compressed methane tanks. How would the onboard
CO2 tanks compare in volume? I may get around
to this arithmetic if no-one else does.
--- Graham Cowan, former hydrogen fan
Boron:
A Better Energy Carrier than Hydrogen?
Everyone knows the one true answer. Maybe they
can agree this is the second choice?
|
Murray Duffin
12.3.04 |
I think that adding
to the existing electric grid is less expensive
than building pipelines. Taking the electricity
to where the Hydrogen is needed, and generating
the hydrogen on site has to be easier than than
moving CO2 to the hydrogen and methane back. Also
we have significant parts of the country not served
by NG pipelines, but almost the entire country
served by the electricity grid. On the other side,
using oxygen enhanced combustion, and the latest
flue gas clean up technologies we can get a very
highly concentrated CO2 stream for coal sourced
CO2. I'm pretty doubtful about collecting CO2
on the vehicle for recycling. That seems too complex,
and the simplest solutions are the best (Occam's
razor peraphresed). Murray
|
Dursun Sakarya
12.3.04 |
"The cost of a
bit of DRAM memory has fallen 5 orders of magnitude
in 30 years." I love your can-do attitude!! Perhaps
in 30 years we can turn hydrogen from a net energy
sink to a net energy source. However I won't be
holding my breath.
|
Jim Beyer
12.3.04 |
You don't need
any CO2 collection on vehicles. Vehicles account
for only 18% of our CO2 emissions (U.S.) and nearly
every other emission source would be easier to
capture than from a moving vehicle. See the Keith-Farrell
paper in the July-03 Science. We need to be concerned
about CO2 emissions from cars only when our other
emission sources have been fixed. They are all
lower hanging fruit. With respect to methane instead
of hydrogen, you just emit the CO2 from the car.
By definition, it is either carbon neutral (if
derived from biomass sources) or at worst twice-used
(such as from a coal-fired electric plant stack).
Either way, you aren't making anything worse,
and you are able to use a fuel that is 3x denser
than hydrogen and already widely used in our economy.
Regarding electric-based grid distribution
of hydrogen -- that's fine, assuming the grid
is always going. But if we wish to move to more
renewable electricity, the grid may NOT always
be going, at least to the extent needed to support
vehicle fuel in addition to our electrical needs.
If that's the case, you either need electrical
storage or massive bulk hydrogen storage to
accommodate the daily and even seasonal variation
in our renewable energy sources. We obviously
get more sunlight during the summer months,
so if we wish to take advantage of this resource,
we need some way to store it. Not for hours
or a few days, but months. Since electrical
storage (batteries) would be far too expensive,
that leaves hydrogen gas, and a lot of it, much
more than you could store at individual gas
stations. Given that, finding, and perhaps moving
a bit of CO2 is not so bad, because it would
reduce THAT storage by a factor of 3 as well.
-Jim
|
Jim Beyer
12.3.04 |
Harrumph!
Regarding Dursun Sakarya's comment, of course
making hydrogen (from electricity) is a net
energy sink. It always will be. It will NEVER
be an energy source, only a medium.
The point is STORAGE and TIME. If you want
to use energy that was accumulated in the past,
you need some way to store it. Hydrogen (or
methane) is a convenient way to store energy,
at least compared with electrical charge, or
even chemical batteries.
This convenience comes at a price. Only 70
or 90 percent (or whatever) of the electrical
energy remains in the hydrogen. But the storage
cost is much lower, so depending on how long
you need to be able to store the energy indicates
how wise it is to create the hydrogen in the
first place.
People seem to have no trouble understanding
that a laptop computer should cost more money
than a desktop computer of equal capability.
With energy, the situation is the same. Higher
density is more convenient and thus more valuable.
Under the right conditions, making hydrogen
from electricity can be a value adding operation.
-Jim
|
Len Gould
12.3.04 |
I think a lot
of the discussion is clouded by a lack of stating
clearly what time frame is being discussed. Murray's
article, I think, is directed to the very near
term eg. what is possibe in the next 10 to 20
years, whereas part of the debate is directed
much further out, eg. what will happen when fossil
carbons are no longer ever used as energy fuels,
a very different though inevitable proposition.
Discussing whether bi-directional methane/CO2
systems make sense in terms of the energy distribution
infrastructure of today or the next twenty years
is fairly pointless, it won't happen on a widespread
basis. In 200 years? Who knows, maybe. But given
todays pace of scientific development and extrapolating
that far, I'd guess it's simply an academic
exercise. Chances are that by then any energy
requirement you can't collect from the globally
available harmless microwaves beamed down from
power satellites designed to mitigate the onset
of the next ice age, can be gotten from your
pocket fusion reactor / garbage recycler as
necessary.
It's like asking George Washington to predict
the optimum energy distribution infrastructure
for powering the computers and cellphones of
2005, though even that understates the likely
level of change given todays rate of communication
and organization in scientific and technological
research.
One thing that is fairly predictable is a
large penalty for allowing carbon atoms to combine
with oxygen. The way carbon nanotube developments
are heading, i'd guess by then pretty much everything
from your personal transporter to your 3D video
display will be manufactured largely from pure
carbon. Hopefully the price of the nanotube
can be brought down for current $85,000 / kg.
|
Roger Arnold
12.3.04 |
While it's true
that one can make methane from hydrogen and CO2,
one can just as easily make methanol. (Maybe a
little easier). Methanol doesn't carry quite as
much energy per molecule as methane, but it's
liquid at room temperature. That's a very significant
difference. CNG vehicles have been around for
a long time, but have never become popular--even
though NG was until recently a very cheap fuel.
Two problems have been the bulk and weight of
the CNG tanks, and the time and inconvenience
of refilling them. I.e., the same problems, on
a more modest scale, that compressed hydrogen
faces.
Since methane and methanol are equally suitable
as fuel for an IC engine, or for reforming and
fueling a high temperature SOFC, my question
for Jim is why advocate methane rather than
methanol?
|
Jim Beyer
12.3.04 |
Len Gould: I don't
think this is an academic subject at all. A lot
of money seems to be being spent to try to get
hydrogen fuel cells to work. A lot of talk is
going on about how to build a hydrogen infrastructure
to support these vehicles. The recent CARB ruling
in California (completely ludicrous, in my opinion)
limiting CO2 emissions in vehicles is real, not
academic. These are all affecting people and some
businesses in real ways. Not academic at all.
Maybe we don't need CO2 (or hydrogen) pipelines
at all. Maybe plug-in hybrids are enough and
we can just use foreign oil for the remainder.
Maybe global warming is worse than we thought
and we can't even do that.
Maybe plug-in hybrids won't work, so producing
fuel from renewables IS important after all.
Who knows? But I think it is important to
at least try to think some of these things through.
If only to keep politicians from wasting more
of our money.
But I do know that even if we do have fusion
reactors or solar power satellites, we will
still desire a dense, energetic fuel for some
uses. But maybe by then, we'll have enough energy
to just make JP-8 and be done with it ! :)
-Jim
|
Jim Beyer
12.3.04 |
Roger Arnold:
I have no trouble with methanol at all. I think
reasonable people can see the advantages and disadvantages
of either choice. If we do wish to use more methanol
in our vehicles, however, it's important that
we don't reform our existing (and dwindling) domestic
natural gas to make it. We must either make it
the hard way (out of electrolyzed hydrogen) or
perhaps import it from Qatar or some other NG
rich area that can reform it there and ship it
over on a tanker. Or maybe pyrolize biomass, but
that seems a little brutish to me.
It is kind of a crummy fuel though, about
twice as bulky as gasoline, very poisonous,
hard to keep the NOx and formaldehyde emissions
down. I'm not saying it's liquid form doesn't
trump these concerns, but I think there may
be a reason why it hasn't been enthusiastically
embraced to date.
If I remember correctly, converting from methane
-> methanol or methanol -> methane both
leave about 80% of the energy left over, so
if you ARE making it from scratch it would be
beneficial to figure out which one you want
and to stick with it. Since our existing infrastructure
does have some high efficiency combined-cycle
gas turbines (58% efficient), there is probably
a use for at least some methane. The obvious
convenience of a liquid fuel can't be overlooked,
however. I'm not (yet) impressed with methanol
fuel cells -- a recent vehicle demonstration
in Germany could only produce about 1.5 kwatts.
On the other hand, it is possible that with
liquid fuels, there is no free lunch, and you
are paying even for that. For example, consider
ethanol vs. methane as a fuel product from biomass.
Ethanol, being liquid, is obviously a more convenient
fuel. But the fermenting process produces ethanol
in a water mixture, so a drying step is needed,
which can be up to 30% of the energy content
of the fuel produced. If this step can't be
improved, or perhaps implemented with a waste
heat source, then the "cost" of this convenience
(the fuel being a liquid) could be another 30%
of energy needed. Based on that, a pressurized
tank might pay for itself in a just hundred
fillups or so. Methane, on the other hand, is
more easily separated (energetically) CO2 if
the biomass is subjected to methanogenesis by
methanogens instead of fermentation by yeasts.
Only about 5-10% of the energy content is needed
for the separation of methane from CO2. There
may be some issues with methanol in the same
way, but I'm not sure. (I'm not 100% sure of
this "liquid-fuels-are-not-a-free-lunch" thing,
just a hypothesis....)
I think in general, if we can understand how
to live with smaller chain hydrocarbon fuels,
at least in theory, we will be less surprised
if oil depletion accelerates in the future and
forces our hand.
(probably talking too much......)
-Jim
|
Roger Arnold
12.3.04 |
Jim, I quite agree
about not using our existing natural gas supplies
to produce methanol. There may be exceptions,
e.g., in cases where a gas well is small and remote.
If it's uneconomical to build a pipeline to the
well, it might still be economical to convert
the gas to methanol, rather than flaring it. It
could then be shipped out by tanker truck. That's
one GTL approach. Another is to makes synthesis
gas, and use FT synthesis to form heavier hydrocarbons.
I think both approaches are under development
and maybe being used in various places.
Do you have any opinion about the ZECA approach
to gasification? It starts out by "burning"
any carbon or hydrocarbon fuel in a hot hydrogen
atmosphere to produce methane. The methane is
then reformed with CaO and water, producing
CaCO3 and at least twice as much hydrogen as
used to make the methane. The CaCO3 is then
calcined to regenerate CaO and a pure stream
of CO2.
What's interesting to me about that process
is that it should work well with oil shale as
the hydrocarbon input. We have lots of that
around. If we combined it with electrolytically
generated hydrogen from renewable sources, it
would stretch pretty far.
It seems like there's a wealth of good possibilities.
Fighting wars over dwindling oil supplies is
criminally stupid.
|
Roger Arnold
12.3.04 |
A short "PS" about
saving methane for power generation in high efficiency
CCGTs: I don't believe there's anything magical
about methane as a fuel for these systems. In
fact, the turbine stages actually work better
on liquid fuel, because the fuel doesn't have
to be compressed. The rise of CCGTs using NG is
an accident of history: gas was cheap and had
"no better use". Liquid fuels were (and are) more
valuable for use in vehicles than for producing
power. But if a renewable energy economy produced
liquid fuels naturally, they wouldn't need to
be converted to methane in order to fuel a CCGT
for power.
|
Jim Beyer
12.5.04 |
I forgot. Another
argument for methane over methanol is storage.
If one can accept the 'value' of CO2 as a carrier
for hydrogen bond energy, then one would collect
it and send it back to energy sources. But if
the time of energy use varies widely from the
time of energy production, you may be dealt with
a significant CO2 storage issue. Since CO2 is
a gas (and always will be) then if the fuel itself
is a gas, you could perhaps make dual use of this
storage and transport mechanism. (Like Mr. Duffin
said, perhaps a single pipeline could transport
CO2 to an energy site for one part of the year
and CH4 back during another part of the year.)
Currently large amounts of CH4 are stored in underground
geologic structures. They could be used to store
CO2 as well. If you made methanol, you still need
all the CO2 storage and transport, but in addition
you'd need storage and transport for the liquid
fuel. Agreed, since it is a liquid, this would
be a more modest investment, but given the concerns
about MTBE, people might not be thrilled to have
underground tanks of methanol around either.
From what I can figure out, methanol is not
nearly as bad as MTBE, because it does decay
naturally and quickly in the enivronment, but
it is not all that wonderful either. If your
toddler drank a tablespoon of gasoline, she
would get sick. But if it was methanol, she
would either die or have permanent serious injury.
Methanol in higher concentrations also does
NOT break down naturally because it kills the
microbes that would normally feed on it.
We also DO have the existing NG infrastructure.
I just tore the old oil tank out of my basement,
so it would be annoying if they decided to heat
homes with methanol instead. :)
-Jim
|
Jim Beyer
12.5.04 |
Roger:
According to their own website, the ZECA system
does not produce hydrogen that is pure enough
to be used in PEM fuel cells without degrading
their catalysts. Ridiculous! Using hydrogen
is IC engine is the worst of all worlds : poor
fuel density, poor efficiency, they even have
no-so-great NOx emissions.
In general, the notion of hydrogenating to
remove C-C and C-O bonds from a hydrocarbon
is a good idea. It improves the ratio of energy/CO2
produced from combustion. In terms of what ZECA
is doing on both the methane production side
and the CO2 capture side, I'm not sure how efficient
they really are. Both seem to require substantial
heat input, which has to come from somewhere.
I'm more of a fan of hydrogenating biomass,
because you still get a good fuel (methane,
methanol, perhaps even a kind of biodiesel)
and the result is carbon neutral. The ZECA system
is a little vague about how the CO2 sequestering
is going to work.
I think we really need to be honest with ourselves
and put all our cards on the table.
Are we considering the move to hydrogen because
of the concern about oil depletion or global
warming?
If it is oil depletion, then we should look
to fuels from biomass or coal, such as methane,
methanol, and biodiesel (we probably can't make
a LOT of this stuff). We should look at improving
efficiency with hybrids and plug-in hybrids.
If we can reduce our oil use by just 10% (with
a glare that we can reduce it another 10%) that
would send enough shocks to the supply side
of the oil industry to settle things down for
another 20 years or so. But no hydrogen is needed
in this equation. As for our electrical needs,
just keep building coal plants.
If it is global warming we are concerned about,
we need to limit emissions from our coal plants.
Vehicle CO2 emissions are a small part of the
equation, and not the thing to be looking at.
We need to figure out how to integrate renewable
electric in our grid and build more infrastructure
for this. At least enough to forgo additional
coal plant construction (This is the Joe Romm
belief.) We need to consider nuclear power again,
and gauge the risk/reward of that versus global
wamring. We need to conserve electricity. There
is probably at least 10-20% hardship-free reductions
in electrical consumption that could be instituted
if we focused on this. It is mostly an educational
effort, as a home or business is always interested
in saving money on their power bills. Again,
no hydrogen here either.
In my opinion, the best, safest, and cheapest
method of carbon sequestration is to burn less
coal, and leave the solid chunks of near 90%
carbon in the ground.
|
Len Gould
12.5.04 |
Jim: Your last
sentence has certainly hit one nail on the head.
By far the wisest method of carbon sequestration
is to leave coal in the ground. US citizens should
intend to be very upset with politicians and company
management if in the next twenty or so years if
it is decided they need to reduce CO2 emissions
given the present attitude to coal-electric generation.
Good luck.
|
Murray Duffin
12.5.04 |
Jim, it is not
either /or. For me the main driver is declining
supplies of NG and petroleum, not global warming.
However, in the medium run the 2 are synergistic.
We will burn more coal, and it is better to do
so as cleanly as possible, but the result will
be declining coaL AVAILABILITY ALSO IN LESS THAN
50 YEARS. That's what I meant about crossing a
chasm in 2 leaps. Using coal in the short run
is only the first leap, and doesn't get you across
the chasm. There are a couple of reasonably economic
ways to clean flue gases and leave relatively
pure CO2, as well as generating some hydrogen.
For me the best part of your thesis is to then
use this CO2 and the hydrogen, plus probably supplemental
hydrogen to make methane to serve the present
NG infrastructure/demand and stretch the NG supply
as far as possible, allowing more time for the
ultimate transition to hydrogen. I haven't thought
my way through this yet, but there is promise
in the idea. Murray
|
Len Gould
12.5.04 |
Murray: I don't
quite buy it. Collecting CO2 and H2 at an IGCC
coal plant, combining them into methane, then
piping it out into the natural gas infrastructure
is (almost) entirely pointless. The only potential
gain is energy storage as NG rather than as coal,
and the reuse of the then-nearing-obsolescence
NG infrastructure. This is of course assuming
the conversion process is about as energy efficient
as electricity generation. Storing energy as coal
is far more efficient than as methane, and transporting
energy as electricity has far more potential for
efficiency, convenience and co-operation with
other more environmentally smart energy sources
than as methane. Think developing superconductors,
super highvoltage DC.
Given that the fossil carbons still wind up
being dumped, and methane itself is a far more
worrisome GHG than CO2, I just don't see the
balancing benefit.
|
Jim Beyer
12.6.04 |
Murray, if you
are mainly driven by declining NG and oil, then
we should further develop hybrids and plug-in
hybrids. If we can get plug-in hybrids to work,
then even renewable electric at 10 cents per kWhr
is cheaper than the gasoline it would displace.
Vehicle fuel is definitely easier to displace
economically than coal-generated electrical power.
I agree with Murray that coal won't last as
long as people think, especially if it is used
more aggressively. With respect to a fuel, you
are better off just making methane from coal,
and using that. Assuming you sequester the CO2
from the methane production process (NOT during
the methan USE) you still save about half the
CO2 that the coal would otherwise produce. You
could replace that CO2 emitted (from the methane
use) by sequestering a like amount of CO2 obtained
from biofuel production. The potential for biofuel
from cellulose is hopeful, and since the process
produces much carbon-neutral CO2 as well, biofuel
production can serve to utilize fossil fuels
in a carbon neutral way further. Assuming large
scale CO2 sequestering works. I'm a little skeptical
about that. If you have one wellhead split open,
you could kill a few thousand people downwind
with a CO2 leak. That would give CO2 sequestering
all the public confidence of a nuclear power
plant.
I realize proposing to turn our cars over
to NG sounds crazy, given our current shortage.
But we have more NG around than we do hydrogen,
which doesn't exist at all, and which is most
commonly obtained from NG in the first place.
I'm trying to figure out what the two leaps
are. I think the first is domestic energy independence,
and the second is no carbon emissions. Is that
close?
Electrical grids are not cheap, are only really
economically practical for lengths under 300
miles or so, and depend on 24/7 use. We tried
to size a grid needed to get the wind power
from the Dakotas to Chicago. It's really hard.
You either end up throwing away a bunch of electricity
during peak times, or way oversizing the wires,
making the transport of electricity ridiculously
expensive. Another thing that people don't seem
to understand is that renewable energy is completely
different than our current system. Fundamentally
so. Not necessarily worse, just different. It
has to do with their intermittent nature, which
is totally anti-thetical to the grid as we presently
perceive it. But if we can learn to live with
this, our ability to integrate these resources
will be much easier for us.
Methane is not that much worse than CO2 as
a GHG. True, it is much more heat absorbing,
but it break s down (into CO2) after about 10
years. So over the life of the molecule, CH4
is only about 5X worse than CO2, not the 20X
that people say. (That was another thing CARB
got wrong.) Since CH4 is useful, presumably
people will work harder to capture and use it
rather than let it drift away.
I think a good experiment would be to develop
some of the wind resources in the Mid-Central
states. Use the energy to make hydrogen and
then methane and probably some ammonia too.
(Ammonia is the lowest hanging fruit for electrolyzed
hydrogen, and producing it would reduce some
of the methane use from that industry.) The
CO2 is fed from nearby ethanol plants. (I'm
not a huge fan of corn-based ethanol, but they
are good sites to test out the process.) Congress
just approved a massive NG pipeline to come
down from Alaska, so the system could pipe into
that. Depending on how much wind we capture,
we'd end up producing a centrally-located, but
very disperse methane source that would never
run out. All of this would cost money, of course,
but since so little gas would be initially produced,
the overall price of NG would not go up very
much.
In the short term, we need to conserve energy
more and add smaller renewable energy sources
locally that people can use. Plug-in hybrids
are good for this because they can be plugged
in perhaps 20 hours per day, so they have a
good chance of getting charged from an intermittent
source. We need to resist the urge to build
more coal plants, because that's a 50 year committment
of infrastructure to emit more CO2.
If our government is working to make us safer,
it is hard for me to understand how spending
another dollar on defense accomplishes this,
versus spending that dollar on either increasing
domestic energy production or increasing our
energy efficiency.
-Jim
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Len Gould
12.6.04 |
Jim: The "two
leaps" referred to are first, replacing petroleum
with coal-based systems, then eventually replacing
that coal-based system when the coal runs out.
Is definitely pointless if the "second leap" technology
is already known.
Your statement "electrical grids are not cheap...
" etc just doesn't hold up. Compared to what?
Anf you guys need to stop evaluating AC electrical
as the only possibility (300 miles). HVDC at
modern voltages can transport energy more economically
than rail or pipeline and the greater the distance
the greater the advantage. With articles such
as F. Mack Shelor's at The
Arguments for a National Direct Current Transmission
Grid , or the proposal for a continental
DC grid by Black and Veatch, and many others
having been around for years, there is simply
no further excuse for not fianlly bringing the
grid into the 21st century and resolving all
these issues. Or see my own proposal,
the Active Electrical Transmission System
The limits of North-South NG transmission
are already filled by Canadian production so
building the pipeline from Alaska proposed by
congress (only to the canada border) will either
require an additional huge investment to get
the gas from the Alaska-Yukon border into the
markets or displacement of currently available
production. Neither makes sense. This one should
be held off until canadian production has fallen
enough to allow it to use existing pipes. Problem
is, that would require some creativity in how
to expand energy production in the mean time.
BTW, Canadian NG resources fell almost 5% last
year despite record drilling.
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Jim Beyer
12.6.04 |
The only problem
with the "first leap" being the leap to coal,
is that if it turns out we have more coal than
atmosphere, we may never get to the second leap.
I am suggesting electrical grids are not cheap
compared with pipelines. I am not suggesting
to make a fuel from electricity, pipe it somewhere,
and then convert it back to electricity in a
power plant. That wouldn't be wise. What I am
suggesting is that some electrical power could
be 'stranded' which might be better off converted
to some kind of fuel instead. And then use the
fuel in a vehicle.
The problem with any type of electrical transmission
grid (AC or DC) is that electricity can't be
stored in it. A pipeline can accommodate different
pressures to allow for some storage as well
as storage in geologic structures, etc. If we
wish to embrace renewable electric (sun, wind)
then we need to think about the grid more carefully.
The grid at present relies on flexible capacity
to match demand changes. If the future grid
is to accommodate renewable electric, it will
have both the supply AND demand sides changing
somewhat randomly. I don't think they are prepared
for that. That's why utilies are reluctant to
assign wind farms any percentage of base capacity.
This is a much more serious problem than whether
we should have DC vs AC transmission lines,
in my opinion.
It may make sense for some amount of the power
to come out of the Dakotas as electricity, but
it would have to be a small percentage of the
peak power production, well under 30%, I would
think. Otherwise the transmission capacity would
be wasted.
I thought they had approved funding for the
entire pipeline, not just that section. My mistake.
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Murray Duffin
12.7.04 |
Jim, believe me the entire NG pipeline network
can't vary the pressure enough from min to max
ro make much difference in storage. It might
be 1% of annual consumption. You havent read
the paper I published on wind. Intermittancy
is not a problem in a geographically large well
integrated grid, with modest back up storage.
The storage can be hydrogen, or pumped hydro
where that is possible. yeah, I am all for hybrids,
and for plug in hybrids if batteries are not
problematic (which I am not yet convinced of).
Hybrids are a very important bridge to the HE
as I thought I made clear in my paper. Murray
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